20 Apr 2018
Investing
April 20, 2018 glacierinvest

Lots of concern in the media and world of academia about the flattening yield curve lately. The WSJ has a great article today putting the current slope of the yield curve in perspective. Basically, the yield curve has historically inverted 6 months to 2 years before the beginning of a recession. Everyone is clearly on some kind of high alert right now (and always, I guess) whether it be recession or stock market crash. I’m not saying that a recession or crash are outside of the realm of possibility right now but it doesn’t pay to overly worry about them.

For the past three recessions (1990, 2001 and 2007), the yield curve inverted about 2, 1 and 2 years before the actual onset of the recessions. If an inverted yield curve is in fact a reliable recession indicator then recent experience would imply that the start of the next recession could be more than 1-2 years away. That’s a long time to be worrying.

Warranties & Disclaimers

 

There are no warranties implied.

Glacier Investment Management (“GIM”) is a registered investment adviser located in Kalispell, MT. GIM may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. GIM’s web site is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment-related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of GIM’s web site on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as GIM’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet. Any subsequent, direct communication by GIM with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of GIM, please contact the state securities regulators for those states in which GIM maintains a registration filing. A copy of GIM’s current written disclosure statement discussing GIM’s business operations, services, and fees is available at the SEC’s investment adviser public information website – www.adviserinfo.sec.gov or from GIM upon written request. GIM does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to GIM’s web site or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

This website and information are provided for guidance and information purposes only.  Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.  Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy.  This website and information are not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice.

Powered by